That is the question.
Wolves spent mainly conservatively (by Premier League standards) in the summer, sticking to a tight (by Premier League standards) wage structure. As things stand today we are out of the relegation zone, but only just. So the question is, to spend big in an attempt to ensure survival or to hope we’ve just about got enough to stay up already, accept relegation if it comes and hope we’re in a good position to bounce back?
With the mid-season transfer window having been open for over a week now, the only direction transfers have gone so far at Molineux is out. It’s good to see Collins and Ward gainfully employed elsewhere, and Shackell off our hands on loan. I thank them for their wholehearted, if variable, service to the club and wish them the best for their future.
I’m happy to offer bets that we’re not going to see any big signings coming in in their place. Perhaps a couple along the lines of Surman and Halford. Maybe someone for the future, probably someone who will do anything asked of them, probably competently, but almost certainly not someone who will change our season. I think the barrier to this is less the one-off transfer fee than the ongoing wages anyone commanding the big fees would require.
I also suspect Mick McCarthy, who places a great emphasis on endeavour and team spirit, will fear bringing in too many new faces and displacing Wolves’ willing footsoldiers. In truth, the likes of Karl Henry, Stephen Ward and Matt Jarvis, along with most of Wolves first team from last year have generally impressed in the step up to the Premiership. However, long term, as a whole Wolves don’t constitute a team with the skill or flair on top of workrate likely to compete in this league consistently. This is the team we have however, and I believe, by and large, this is the team we’ll keep for now. So the question becomes: does this give us enough to survive?
On balance I think we have enough for this season, though probably not the next. One of the reasons for this is the solid work ethic of the team well augmented by the quality particularly of Milijas and Doyle; another is the meltdown experienced by other clubs who have spent too big for too long – Portsmouth, and to a lesser extent West Ham. Wolves will have to work hard to finish below Portsmouth (fingers crossed), and I think we have enough to avoid relegation against this somewhat weakened field.
Although Wolves seem sometimes destined to be one of those nearly teams for whom being mired in the slog of the second tier is second nature, our first (consecutive) season in the Premier League does not justify the risk of mimicking Portsmouth, or Leeds before them.
The balance is fine. Wolves should not risk spending too big, especially in terms of committing future funds in large pay deals for experienced players, but to stay in this league long term will need to further break a restrictive wage structure to compete in the same market as the likes of Stoke and Birmingham, never mind Manchester United. We need some degree of Premier League stability to take the risk, but stability is going to be hard to achieve without spending to rival our competitors. Currently I think Wolves have the balance right, but we’ll need to see a bigger change if we’re still here in July. And if that means losing some old faces and who have performed well for the club then, with some regret, so be it.
Good luck to all who will have to negotiate this fine line in the next few years.
